Q4 2025 & 2026 Real Estate Forecast: Los Angeles & Ventura Counties

The housing markets in Los Angeles and Ventura Counties are entering Q4 2025 with a mix of challenges and opportunities. While high mortgage rates have kept many homeowners locked in and buyers on the sidelines, conditions are expected to improve in 2026 as borrowing costs decline and more inventory comes online.

Unlike the 2008 crash, today’s market is supported by low housing supply, steady employment, and stable economic fundamentals. That means price drops are limited, but real momentum may not arrive until next year.

Mortgage Rates: Relief Ahead

Rates remain the biggest obstacle for buyers and sellers across Southern California.

• End of 2025: Average 30-year fixed expected around 6.0–6.5%.

• 2026: Projected decline to 5.5–6.0%, unlocking more listings.

• Local impact: Many homeowners in Los Angeles and Ventura with 3–4% mortgages remain reluctant to sell until rates ease further.

Home Prices: Cooling, Not Crashing

In high-cost areas like Calabasas, Westlake Village, Thousand Oaks, and Woodland Hills, appreciation has slowed, but prices remain stable thanks to limited supply.

• 2025: Modest growth of +1.8% to +4.4% nationally; locally, prices are flat in some luxury segments but holding firm in mid-tier markets.

• 2026: Growth expected to accelerate slightly, with Ventura County’s affordability edge giving it a stronger outlook than LA’s ultra-luxury markets.

Sales & Inventory: More Movement in 2026

• 2025: Sales remain sluggish, with many “move-up” buyers waiting on rate cuts.

• 2026: Forecasted rebound of 10–15% in existing-home sales as rates ease.

• Inventory: LA and Ventura continue to face low housing supply — about 4.6 months nationally, even tighter locally. New-home construction is limited, but builders are offering incentives to attract buyers.

Rental & Commercial Trends

• Rentals: With affordability still a hurdle, Ventura County rental demand is projected to stay strong in 2025–2026.

• Commercial: Data centers, industrial space, and senior housing show resilience across Southern California.

Key Risks for Southern California

• Tariffs and inflation may slow mortgage rate relief.

• Labor shortages restrict new construction.

• Luxury oversupply risk: Some LA submarkets (e.g., Beverly Hills, Hollywood Hills) could see softer demand compared to Ventura’s more affordable suburban appeal.

The Bottom Line

For Los Angeles and Ventura County homeowners, Q4 2025 will likely feel “stuck” — stable but slow. By 2026, however, easing rates should free up inventory and improve sales activity.

✅ Buyers: Waiting until rates fall closer to 5.5% could create better affordability.
✅ Sellers: Stability is on your side — with limited supply, values remain protected.

📌 If you’re considering a move in West Hills, Calabasas, Thousand Oaks, or anywhere in the LA–Ventura corridor, 2026 could present the best window in years.